To realise the true dividends of urbanisation, a major paradigm shift in cities’ governance is required in Pakistan. Despite their massive contribution to the economy, cities have conspicuously remained absent from the broader policy debate. Further, a failure to recognise cities as a growing entity restrains urban planners and city managers from adopting an integrative and dynamic approach to deal with urban issues. With limited data on cities and a flawed approach to estimate urbanisation, the true extent of urbanisation remains understated and hence the possibility to deal with cities efficiently remains bleak. A focus on representative local governance system, use of data collected through conventional and modern technologies for planning and management, and the adoption of a visionary and inclusive approach are some fundamental prerequisites to realise the true economic potential of cities and ensure sustainable urban growth.

Pakistan is one of the fastest urbanising nations within South Asia with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% (PBS, 2017; Kotkin and Cox, 2013). The rapid pace of urbanisation in Pakistan is due to rural-urban migrations as well as a natural increase in cities (Arif and Hamid, 2009). Whereas the traditional explanation for large urban settlements in terms of concentration of employment owing to agglomeration and scale economies holds, modern-day urbanisation is also pushed by political and economic insecurity and natural calamities in the country. Recent military actions in Pakistan’s tribal areas in the war against terrorism triggered an exodus of people to urban centers, particularly in the cities of Peshawar, Quetta and Karachi.

Economies differ in the way they define an urban settlement. The first population census of Pakistan held in 1951 classified areas with a municipal corporation, town committee or a cantonment as urban. This definition also included areas with communities of more than 5,000 inhabitants, as well as the ones with less than 5,000 inhabitants which have other urban characteristics. However, urban classification was modified at the time of the 1981 population census and was restricted to an administrative definition only. Pakistan’s current urban population is reported to be 36% according to the official census of 2017 and is expected to rise to 50% by 2025 (UN Habitat, 2015). However, the official statistics are largely considered as an underestimation. An alternate measure-agglomeration index1, developed by the World Bank estimates the rate of urbanisation in Pakistan as 56%.

The percentage of the urban population between 1951 (the year of the first population census after Pakistan became an independent country in 1947) and 2017 (the most recent census) has more than doubled from 17.7% to 36.4%. During the same period, comparing absolute values, there was a 13% increase in the urban population whereas the rural population experienced just about a 5-time increase.

Focusing on the urban growth in the ten most populous cities of Pakistan, the census figures show that, within the districts, faster annual growth in population was observed in rural areas than the urban areas. This trend indicates that cities are growing more rapidly outside their municipal boundaries either due to urban sprawl or leapfrog development. The peripheral areas of these cities have become their newly added urban transition areas, but remain classified as rural in the official count. However, in the case of Lahore where we observe the highest annual growth rate, the entire district was declared as urban before the 2017 population census. In aggregate terms, Pakistan cities with a population of over one million inhabitants increased from three in 1981 to seven in 1998, and there are now ten according to the latest census of 2017 (Annexure B).

Urban economic theories explain city existence through agglomeration benefits through learning, sharing and matching (Duranton and Puga, 2004) or in terms of enhanced market linkages (Krugman, 1991). The urban economic contribution is vital for Pakistan’s growth and development. Media reports and government officials claim that urban areas contribute around 78% of the national GDP (Amin 2015). The small and medium enterprises (excluding the informal micro or cottage enterprises), which provide most jobs in high-growth industries such as the information technology sector (Haque 2006), are mostly located in cities. Cities are also centers for human capital development. Educational institutions, skill training centers, as well as research and development opportunities are located in major cities. Despite these potential benefits, the rapid pace of urbanisation in Pakistan raises concerns regarding its causes and consequences. Symptoms of unstable urban growth are evident through dilapidating state capacity in providing essential services such as waste collection and drinking water supply, lack of public spaces, urban flooding, etc. The low-income and low-resource vulnerable communities are the most affected by these problems.

Pakistani cities are already facing real challenges in the provision of housing, transport, education, jobs, healthcare, clean water and energy to their urban population. One reason for heading towards this unsustainability is the rapidly increasing urban footprint because of the emergence of lowdensity urban development compared to denser cities elsewhere. Most of the cities in Pakistan do not have a Central Business District or city center with dense and mixed land use accommodating commercial, office, residential activity including low-income houses, and other amenities. On the contrary, many cities are growing outwards, invading valuable agricultural land, for which, at several times, expensive irrigation has been installed (Haque, 2014). According to a World Bank report looking at the evolution of land use in Karachi, the city is becoming a “spatially unsustainable, inefficient, and unlivable city form” (World Bank, 2018). From 2001 to 2013, Karachi’s urban footprint increased by 29%, i.e. 145 km2. The current trend of urban footprint expansion beyond the municipal boundaries poses challenges in the provision of essential services and is therefore a threat to sustainable urban growth. This trend is not just confined to Karachi but can be observed in major urban centers of Punjab as shown in Figure 1 (Urban Unit, 2018).

There is a lack of adequate housing at affordable prices, owing to a dearth of land in suitable areas. A reason for this is the rampant speculation and a land market driven primarily by the anticipated value of the land. Consequently, areas that are most suitable for low-income housing end up being appropriated for commercial projects, at the cost of lowincome housing needs. This has resulted in a shortfall in the supply of housing for lowincome rungs and the mushrooming of katchi abadis (informal settlements) (World Bank 2018). An alarming statistic on land use shows that 74% of Karachi’s residential area has been formally developed for 38% of the population, while 22% has grown informally for 62% of the remaining population (Hasan, Pervaiz and Raza, 2017).

These informal settlements (katchi abadis) are urban slums, growing at twice the annual urban growth rate of Karachi (Hasan et al., 2015). In these low-income settlements, the density far exceeds the allowable limit and the living standards remain low. This has created urban poverty and several economic, physical and social problems. Living conditions in these areas remain wanting, as most of the inhabitants face exclusion from economic and employment opportunities. Infrastructure facilities and services such as clean drinking water, solid waste disposal and sanitation are also difficult to come by (Hasan, Pervaiz and Raza, 2017; World Bank, 2018). An unhygienic environment and deplorable living conditions expose individuals to ill health, which has an adverse impact on productivity and their capacity to generate sufficient income. Deprived of their ‘right to the city’, these residents are stuck in cyclical poverty traps (Hasan et al., 2015).

Addressing these issues is vital for improving productivity and ensuring the sustainability of urban growth in the long run. According to the Global Livability Index 2018, Karachi is ranked 137 out of 140 cities in the world. Similarly, Lahore and Karachi ranked 199 and 202 respectively out of 230 cities on the Mercer Quality of Living Index 2016.